We wrote an IEEE paper where I will be talking about it in June. We are proposing an extensible architecture in which we propose to connect the APIs (Power/MDM APIs, Data Center APIs and Consumption-based Open Standards API etc) through and through the whole value chain. With more and more Data Centers being built and soon after we are done bashing the economy and again ready to make hay as the economy starts turning around, we could alter the shape of our destiny dramatically!
As other industries will sag, think of hotels, airlines etc, which will certainly contribute to a certain reduction of the carbon emissions, there is strong reason to believe that the spin-offs from the remote-everything will get into overdrive. Today we are carefully talking about online conferences and soon there will be a lot of those online activities that will be firing up all over the place. This will lead to a huge data crunch operations as more and more information will need more processing power as it will come in audio, video and other formats. This will be extremely demanding for the data centers, no matter how centralized they would be. The data center owners will have to realize that their continuous dependence on energy suppliers and other crises shouldn’t lead to a financial-market like collapse. There is again strong reason to believe that the inter-dependence will also foster co-creation and co-conservation but it could also lead to frictions when it is time for “someone to pay”.
We have focused on our paper to exactly address the same problem. we have tried to combine the “industrialized metering solutions”, something the electrical grids have come to do in a reasonable and sustainable fashion, while still making enough profit. The need to standardize and meter the data centers and eventually charge the consumer with a RTP/RTB (Real-Time Pricing/Real-Time Billing) mechanism which is state-approved (for the same reason I keep calling the RCC or Regulated Cloud Computing). Nation-states will have to agree upon this should they want to conserve the depleting energy resources and would want to invest collectively towards better and non-destructive energy resources.
Now should all that not happen and we keep doing things like we have so often done in the past then I foresee a future like this:
2012 – Clouds start gaining traction. Data Centers are getting built continuously and not all of those data centers will go through a coC or SIGnaturing audits thus leaving a massive boom to CO2 emission unmeasured and untackled. Every community will have its own cloud and in its own format. You get to choose the Cloud you want to buy into.
2014– Switches to match mega-computing capacity and will soon get energy efficient but the connection speeds and demands will not match the needs of consumers as more and more consumers add to Facebook, Twitter and Vogger* , a sort of micro-vlogging service that will promise the path to “True Teleputing” and also somewhat Teleporting promises (if not capabilities). This would eventually displace Facebook and Twitters by 2025.
2015 – Terabit Ethernet and WiMax enhancements will lead to the mass-opening of the fourth world, the rest of the 5 Billion people who will start filling up the demand. More and more engineering talent drain as things get automated and autonomic. There would be lesser need to maintain large applications and thus a lot of consolidation will continue as technologies advance.
2016 – Facebook reaches half-a-billion user count. Twitter overtakes Facebook as it penetrates low-entry nations such as Africa, S. America etc faster than others. Even remote locations where WiMax connectivity and netbook/webbooks will connect the 4th worlds to the industrialized worlds.
2018 – Data Centers are not able to contain the energy emission but are too big to fail (See, same thing like financial institutions). World leaders unite to protect the data centers. Audits are carried out and a lot of mess is discovered. Meanwhile consumers are hooked on as never before.
2020 – Data Centers start crashing and affecting other data centers as climate changes and global tensions lead to political fallout.
This necessarily does not happen but liek dumb humans we have always taken for granted that everything that came on this planet was for free. It has been shown in the past that we have had such sinusoidal tremors but it has cost human race its very existence every time it happened. Take a look.
And this may look like we are on an unstoppable train but we can turn it around.
Lets meet at the end of the next decade and see where we end up.